- Kills 12th: Head high to overhead, light onshore wind. Possible run-day
- Wednesday 13th: Overhead with offshore wind. Likely run day
- Thu 14th: Pumping surfing, offshore wind. Likely run day
- Fri 15th: Easing but still solid. AM offshore. Likely run day
- Sat 16th: Fading leftovers, side/onshore wind.
Watch Live: J-Bay Cam
Mechanics of J-Bay
TUESDAY 12th: 4-5′ faces early build to 5-7’+ faces PM. Light devil wind early trends to light onshore PM.
SWELL/SURF: Building, mid period SW swell with surf increasing into the afternoon hours.
WIND: Light WNW wind in the morning trends to light onshore E to SE over the afternoon but should be below 10kts.
WEDNESDAY 13th: 5-7’+ faces AM building to 6-8’+ faces by day’s end. Light side/offshore wind early trends offshore for the afternoon.
SWELL/SURF: Reinforcing, mid to longer period SW to SSW swell builds in through the afternoon. The morning looks close to where we ended on Tuesday, with more size building for the second half of the day.
WIND: Light WNW wind in the morning trends moderate offshore W/WSW by the later morning and afternoon.
THURSDAY 14th: 8-12’+ faces all day. Moderate devil wind (WNW) early offshore trends by mid morning.
SWELL/SURF: Solid SSW swell builds in with pumping surf all day. Look for surf in the well overhead to double overhead range, with some larger sets not out of the question. Stay tuned. WIND: Stronger wind than the previous days likely. Potential for early devil wind from the NW/WNW but offshores should settle in through mid morning at breezy levels. Offshore wind continues through the afternoon as well.
FRIDAY 15th: 8-12’+ faces early ease to 8-10′ faces by day’s end. Light offshore wind early may trend to light+ onshore by the afternoon.
SWELL/SURF: Solid SSW swell continues, and the morning should be similar in size to Thursday afternoon. A gradual decreasing trend is expected through the second half of the day. WIND: Offshore wind is currently expected in the early to mid morning, trending light/variable around mid day. Light to moderate onshore E wind is expected for the afternoon.
SATURDAY 16th: 5-7′ faces early fade through the day. N/Devil wind all day.
SWELL/SURF: SSW swell steadily fades through the day, strongest in the morning.
WIND: Moderate N/Devil wind all day.
We remain on track to see plenty of surf over the first few days of the event window with increasing odds for pumping surf on Thursday and into Friday. This run of swell will be from a large, complex low pressure system that is developing now, with several storms taking aim at South Africa.
We’ll start with smaller but contestable surf on Tuesday as a partially shadowed SW swell builds in through the day. The morning is likely to start of slower (around head high) before the new swell kicks in during the afternoon and evening hours with sets going up to a couple feet overhead. Wind doesn’t look good but also isn’t horrible – light devil/NW wind through the first half of the day, trending light+ onshore easterly in the afternoon (5-8kts).
Larger surf is expected on Wednesday as swell direction trends slightly more favorable/less shadowed and a new, larger SSW swell builds in the afternoon. Overhead surf looks possible on Wednesday, building to well overhead in the later afternoon and evening. The increase in surf over the afternoon should coincide with a favorable wind switch as well-light+ devil wind through the morning could give way to offshore W/WSW wind during the afternoon hours. Stay tuned.
Thursday should see the SSW swell build in further to a peak later in the day. At this point surf in the solid double overhead range is likely and we could very well see some larger sets. There may be a brief window of devil wind (NW-WNW) in the early morning but that should give way to breezy offshore W/WSW wind for the rest of the day. Still looks like a pumping day of surfing with classic conditions.
Friday morning will remain very solid and should be right in line with size Thursday afternoon, assuming the storm behaves as fvorecast in the next couple days. Gradually decreasing surf is expected over the afternoon. Wind looks favorable in the morning before shifting onshore easterly in the afternoon.
Fading leftovers from the SSW are expected over the weekend and the surf currently looks pretty slow from Sunday the 17th through Wednesday the 20th. There should be some small, shadowed SW pulses for the 18th-20th but that looks around head high or less. A larger SW/SSW swell is possible around the final day of the event window, Thursday the 21st. Stay tuned.
NextUpdate: Monday night, July 11th (local time)