Caribbean tropical development likely early next week

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  • Two areas are subject to development monitoring in the Atlantic basin.
  • An area is likely to develop into a tropical depression or storm in the coming days in the Caribbean Sea.
  • This could pose a threat to parts of the Caribbean and Central America.
  • A second area in the Bermuda Triangle seems less likely to be developed.
  • This second domain will not threaten the United States

Two areas are being watched for development, one in the Caribbean Sea which could impact Central America, the other in the Atlantic Ocean which, although not a direct threat to the United States , will have indirect impacts along the east coast through the weekend.

We still have about a month left of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. According to the National Hurricane Center, a typical hurricane season typically produces one more storm before the season ends. The next storm in the Atlantic Basin would earn the name “Lisa”, the 12th name on this season’s list.

(​AFTER: When the last storm of hurricane season usually occurs)

Just at the right time, we have a few areas of interest, indicated by the circles in the graph below.

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Possible NHC development areas

(Possible area(s) of tropical development according to the National Hurricane Center’s latest outlook are represented by polygons, color-coded according to the risk of development over the next five days. An “X” indicates the location of a current disturbance.)

Caribbean Concern

A broad area of ​​low pressure has formed over the eastern Caribbean Sea and is now expected to develop into a tropical depression or storm early this week, according to the National Hurricane Center. The disorganized system was tagged Invest 95L by the NHC to free up resources to investigate the system, including Hurricane Hunters, which flew into the system on Saturday afternoon.

Multiple computer forecast models have repeatedly shown a westerly track across the Caribbean over the past few days.

Assuming a tropical depression or storm forms, it should continue to track westward or west-northwestward across the Caribbean Sea, led by a broad high pressure dome to the north.

It is too early to determine exactly where it will follow.

For now, the most likely lead would be to part of Central America mid to late week.

However, interests in Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula should also watch these forecasts closely, as a more northerly track is not out of the question in the coming week.

As for how strong he can become, there are mixed signals.

However, there is a lot of dry air over the western half of the Caribbean Sea right now, and some forecast models suggest that if the system moves a bit too far north in the Caribbean Sea, it could in the face of increased wind shear. These two factors are typically the enemies of tropical systems.

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NHC development areas and water vapor satellite image

(This map shows areas of dry air (darker orange) and moist air (white, purple, and blue), as well as possible area(s) of tropical development according to the National Hurricane Center’s latest outlook, as shown in the previous map above.)

Regardless of all of this, there is potential for heavy local rainfall over the next few days from the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and possibly Jamaica. This could trigger dangerous flash floods and landslides, in areas of hilly or mountainous terrain.

So check back with us for updates to these predictions in the coming days.

east coast wave generator

The second system we are watching is not a US threat, but will contribute to a pattern that will be a nuisance for the East Coast.

A low pressure vortex may form soon in the Bermuda Triangle, between Bermuda and Puerto Rico and well east of the Bahamas.

Regardless of what meteorologists call this trough, it will remain in place or meander near or west of Bermuda before weakening later in the weekend.

It will team up with high pressure over the northeastern United States to produce persistent winds across much of the eastern seaboard at least this weekend.

Besides a windy weekend, this persistent onshore wind flow will also create strong waves along the coast, causing at least some modest coastal flooding at high tide, as well as rip currents.

Charleston experienced higher than usual tides on Saturday.

If you’re heading to an Atlantic beach this weekend and it’s warm enough to tempt you to get in the water, it’s probably best to stay out of the water due to the threat of return currents.

This surface pressure forecast model shows the possible subtropical system near Bermuda, coupled with high pressure in the northeast creating a persistent onshore wind along much of the eastern seaboard that could bring strong currents surf and rip.

The primary journalistic mission of The Weather Company is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science in our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

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