Coming up: a long lasting and possibly super gorgeous NE swell for NSW

  • A wide, slow high pressure system maintains a northerly flow across the western Tasman Sea throughout the week
  • Wind speed increases ahead of a low pressure system developing over NSW
  • Small to medium NE swell days will follow early next week

Premium forecast for this entrant: North New South Wales | North median coast | Newcastle | Sydney | Wollongong | South side

A big change is coming in the swell regime across the east coast this week – and for many, it can’t happen soon enough. Weeks of vigorous S / SE swells in August and September dragged tons of sand towards the northern ends, creating rugged, shallow banks that usually turn said swells into straight lines wherever you look.

Such configurations are ideally suited to a short NE swell, turning fences into quality left-handed people. And guess what, it’s about to happen.

Lotus wave angle diagrams for NSW: (left) early Thursday morning as the short-range NE swell gains traction, and Sunday (right) as the offshore wind band turns the swell more towards the ‘is.

Already we are seeing northerly winds blowing along much of the NSW coast in response to the Tasman High – and these winds will intensify over a wider area of ​​the western Tasman Sea over the next few days. This causes a fun little increase in short-lived NE wind swells over the coast.

As the high pressure intensifies and moves over the northeast Tasman Sea, a large continental low moves south through the interior of New South Wales, before focusing briefly just over the Victorian border on Thursday. This helps build a large NNE fetch offshore, probably sustaining speeds of 20-30 knots for several days. The end result is a gradual increase in wave height and period, producing a better quality NE swell with each passing day.

Lotus Wind Barb graphics for the Tasman Sea: Wednesday evening (left) as the wind picks up just offshore, and late Saturday (right) as the group moves and really starts rolling.

As the whole system migrates further east this weekend, the wide NE fetch is expected to lengthen and intensify further over the central and eastern Tasman Sea. It will probably be a little too offshore to have a direct impact on the coast, there is a good chance it will produce a new ENE swell pulse in the first days of October.

Local winds seem generally favorable during the best part of this episode, so stay tuned for the premium forecast for the best conditions over the week ahead.

Above: 168 hour Lotus swell animation, showing the NE swell developing along the NSW and pushing a tiny bit into Qld towards the end of the cycle.

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