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REMEMBER ON THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE: Tape on windows is *NOT* helpful and will not prevent glass from shattering.
Realize that the forecast cone (“cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given period – up to 5 days – and *does not indicate* the width of the storm and/or damage that could occur.
August ended with no named Atlantic storms. This is only the third time in the satellite era (after 1961 and 1997). 1961 ended up being very active with 12 named storms after September 1 while there were only 3 named storms in 1997 in September-November. Tropical systems did not impact Fl. or Ga. either year.
This is only the 7th time since 1950 that a hurricane hasn’t developed over the Atlantic before September 1 and *never* has there been such a case in a La Nina year. .
No tropical systems will impact the United States or lands in the Caribbean and/or Bahamas through at least Labor Day…
Tropical Depression #5 formed early on Thursday. & was upgraded to Tropical Storm “Danielle” later in the morning. Danielle is in the middle of the North Atlantic hundreds of kilometers E/NE of Bermuda and well west of the Azores Islands. The storm is essentially “stuck” over the North Atlantic and won’t move much through the weekend while continuing to build to hurricane intensity, then likely leveling off due to the upwelling and less favorable general conditions next week. An upper trough moving over the Northwest Atlantic next week should finally catch the system directing Danielle towards the E/NE in open water.
Somewhere else… virtually all models agree on the development of tropical cyclones over the central and/or eastern Atlantic. The positioning and strength of the Bermuda High remains critical to the destination of any system and whether or not tropical systems can move across the Atlantic which would then pose a threat to the Caribbean, Bahamas and/or or the American coast. Over the next week, it looks like the Bermuda High will be shifted somewhat northeast and weaker, allowing tropical systems to curve north and then northeast rather than continuing eastward. west throughout the Atlantic. A general trough over the eastern United States and along the east coast will help “protect” the east coast through next week with a general upper level flow to the southwest (helping to turn all tropical systems further north and east). This tandem between the trough and the Bermuda High appears to remain stuck for most if not all of next week. Good news for the USA!
A wave of lead – ’91-L’ – over the central Atlantic and well east of the Lesser Antilles/Caribbean will veer more northwesterly over time and should develop slowly. Indications are that it will turn north to the eastern United States through next week. There may be increased swell + increased risk of rip current next week from Fl. to Chesapeake Bay depending on exact location and system strength. The GFS model is faster to turn this wave to the north because the model develops a stronger and therefore deeper system faster while the European model is more western and slower with a weaker system. This more Western scenario will need to be watched carefully. Given the system’s current weakness, it’s entirely possible that more westerly is in play, which could allow the disturbance to get close enough to Puerto Rico and the North Windward Islands to enhance squalls from wind and rain by Monday/Tuesday. It still looks like a more northerly turn later over the western Atlantic, but I can’t totally rule out a more westerly “end game” by next weekend. Something to watch closely.
And an active tropical wave happened off the coast of Africa. It looks like this wave will move further north at the start of the “game” and therefore won’t cross the Atlantic, but it has a chance of being named before it reaches cooler waters.
Another wave will follow with the potential for a more southerly track – at least initially – around September 10-15.
The MJO continues to evolve. In simpler terms: the green lines on the map below indicate “rising” air and *may* be more conducive to the development of tropical systems. Brown lines indicate “downward” air which is generally less favorable. Descending air (brown lines) has spread over most of the central and eastern Pacific, indicating generally less favorable conditions for tropical cyclones, while rising air is over the Indian Ocean and the Western Pacific (where 3 tropical cyclones have developed in the past 10 days) & now spans much of the Atlantic. A continued transition to rising air across the Atlantic is expected as we advance deeper into September.
So time will tell and – ultimately – just how big the next few weeks could be from a tropical perspective will be dictated by where the tropical systems go… if there are any landfalls … and then the strength of the system or is not. Either way, it’s time to be vigilant and prepared as we reach the peak of hurricane season on September 10.
Origins of September:
Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin through September. So far this season has been well below average:
The Saharan dust spreads every year towards the west from Africa by the prevailing winds (east to west over the Atlantic). Air dry – yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can hamper the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “waiting to be” waves will simply wait to get to the other side of – or away from – the plume, and then try to grow if other conditions are right. In my opinion, there is far too much talk about the presence of Saharan dust and its link to tropical cyclones. In any case, several large dust plumes spread west towards the Caribbean and the Gulf with the Saharan dust peak generally in June and July.
2022 names….. “Danielle” is the next name on the Atlantic list (the names are drawn by the World Meteorological Organization… to be repeated every 6 years). Historical storms are removed [Florence & Michael in ’18… Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20 & Ida in ‘21]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous with “Charley”, “Frances”, “Jeanne” and “Ivan” removed from the 2004 list (all affected in Florida) and “Matthew” was removed in 2016. WMO decided – as of last year – that the Greek alphabet will no longer be used and that there will instead be an additional list of names if the first list is exhausted (this did not happen). produced only three times – 2005, 2020 and 2021). Tropical cyclone naming began consistently in 1953. Read more about tropical cyclone naming history *here*.
Middle and upper wind shear analysis (enemy of tropical cyclones) (CIMMS). Red lines indicate strong shear:
Water vapor imaging (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep ocean heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean and deep tropical Atlantic:
Sea surface temperature anomalies:
US US surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Gulf surface analysis:
GFS wave forecast at 48 & 72 hours (2 & 3 days):
Wave period forecasts in the Atlantic Basin for 24, 48 and 72 hours respectively:
Atlantic Seasonal Forecast Update from early August – NOAA & CSU:
The Eastern Pacific:
Javier has developed and will remain offshore but has the potential to bring heavy rain and gusty winds + rough seas/surf to Baja California. Another disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone off Mexico.
Global tropical activity:
Typhoon “Hinnamnor” (a super typhoon sometimes) is expected to stall while turning sharply north and remain east of Taiwan and south of most of Japan – except for some of the far southern islands. The typhoon will begin to accelerate north/northeastward early to mid next week, potentially affecting South Korea + brushing the east coast of China.
Cox Media Group