- Large scale NE swell will arrive this weekend
- Surf rises on Saturday, peaks on Sunday, lasts until Monday
- Changing conditions with the coasts, but the winds are swinging next week
Forecasts related to this Outlook: Bay of Abondance | Gisborne | Hawkes Bay
Tropical Cyclone Cody is currently intensifying about 350 nm southwest of Fiji, the storm is expected to slowly dissipate near New Zealand early next week.
Over the next 24 hours, TC Cody is expected to peak at Category 2 force with winds of 70 knots and seas of 20 feet, before heading south towards New Zealand by the weekend. end. Weather models are confident that the storm’s track will bring a significant swell and weather event to New Zealand, with the east coasts of the North Island expecting the largest waves to peak late next Sunday and end. hold until Monday. Dangerous weather conditions and gale force winds will mean unstable and dangerous conditions at first.
As the storm undergoes an extra-tropical transition, early forecasts show it is following a straight southward course along 180-degree longitude on Sunday and moving over the Eastern Cape on Sunday evening. Surf is expected to intensify from the NE with sustained winds of 40 knots circulating clockwise around Gisborne in the early hours of Monday.
While the models agree on the projected trajectory, there is a difference of about 18 hours in the timing and intensity of the storm when it arrives, so note that the forecast will likely change. Some models suggest a fast track south with a landing on Sunday evening, while other forecasts call for a wider spread of winds and a slower projection of the storm on Monday evening. Either way, weather, waves and winds will be heavily affected in many parts of New Zealand this weekend through early next week.
This movement is key to how changes in the wind around the storm center affect surf conditions. The strongest and most choppy seas will arrive when the initial NE swell peaks under SEA winds. However, as the storm begins a southerly course and crosses the Eastern Cape on Monday, a rapid change in lighter westerly winds offshore may occur on the northern flank of the storm. The North Island stars can have a real time here, but it will only be brief, as the swells will diminish rapidly as a result of this change in wind and could decrease rapidly on Tuesday.
All projections are expected to change based on how TC Cody behaves over the next two to three days, so check out our forecast for more information. We’ll also be updating this Outlook on Saturday with specific guidance on the storm movements.
Above: 168-hour Lotus animation of the South Pacific swell spread, showing lots of stuff! But above all the ex-TC wraps around the North Island and loses its strength as it passes south. At the end you will again see another thing forming well in the North Island ENE, that thing could be gold. Stay tuned.