Hours after chief researchers of the new Encovi study told media that 76% of Venezuelans live in extreme poverty, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Joseph Borrell announced that the bloc was sending an Election Observation Mission (OEM) to the scheduled regional elections. for November 21 in Venezuela. This mission is responsible for carrying out an independent assessment of electoral conditions. Its field of action is broader than that of the support missions that we have seen during the elections since 2006.
If this mission is allowed to do its job, and if the process passes the exam (even with low marks), the result will have a significant degree of legitimacy. It can be safely said that the government candidates have the upper hand, they not only have a better organized base but also a historical capital accumulated to put pressure on the voters (through their dependence on CLAP food packages and the support of the military authorities. and local). On the other hand, the opposition has lost voters due to emigration and disenchantment, has few resources and is divided into internal wars. As a result, the government has had the golden opportunity to sweep the cleanest election possible (under these insane circumstances, yes) for years.
If Chavismo is able to behave, which is hard to imagine, it could have poor participation and still get a double victory: retain control over most cities and states, and regain some legitimacy, just enough to pave the way for sanction. relief.
However, as we have said before, we believe the government has learned to live with sanctions, and while it would like the sanctions to be lifted, it is not prepared to risk losing power to achieve it. . To quote the architect, “there are levels of survival that we are willing to accept.” And the chavismo, too, has survival levels they’re willing to accept.
The last weeks The political risk report covered a wide range of topics:
- A government strategy to drive a wedge between the two main opposition parties.
- Behind the withdrawal of Primero Justicia from everything related to the management of foreign assets concerning the interim government.
- Details of the deployment of the OEM, and how it was taken by the various opposition groups.
- The strategy to keep the interim government alive beyond January 2022.
With the explosion of COVID-19 despite an increase in the rate of vaccination, and the new economic challenge with the arrival of the digital bolivar in a dollarized country, the country described in the Encovi survey is focusing on survival, looking the other way of an election that offers little chance of change no matter what in a hotel in Mexico City.
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